Climate change and agricultural productivity in Myanmar: Application of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

Myanmar is facing climate change (CC) induced changes to the productivity of their critically important rice sector over coming century. Moreover, recent five-year Myanmarese Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS) sets out a vision achieving an ‘…inclusive, competitive, food and nutrition secure, resilient, sustainable agricultural system…’ by 2030. In this paper, we investigate pillar ADS strategy. Specifically, employ newly developed dynamically recursive 2021–40 computable general equilibrium model for analyse seven current future CC scenarios state- region-specific paddy yield during 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, derived from IIASA FAO’s Global Agro‐Ecological Zones GAEZ V.3 scenarios, allowing us relative importance both rainfed irrigation farming practices high input-use low technologies, how these technology decisions interact with CC-induced changes. Our results suggest that, while smallholders, using may face small or even negative economic impacts changes, farmers, across all states regions, will benefit towards end century, highlighting expanding access e.g. via expanded use extension services providing better credit smallholder farmers. We also find, counterintuitively, that households less compared practices. Finally, our point strong differences in between indicating mitigating action should be focussed on exposed regions such as Ayeyarwady region.